In this blog post, we explore why we feel like we’re the only ones experiencing bad luck, examining Murphy’s Law and the psychological misconceptions hidden within it.
Murphy’s Law
On days when I leave later than usual, the shuttle bus line is always much longer than expected. Not only do I wait forever for the shuttle, but the doors often close right in front of me. I often wonder why bad things seem to happen to me so consistently. For instance, it’s not just missing the bus; when rushing in the morning, especially on important days, I spill my coffee or trip over my untied shoelaces. When lining up at the restroom or supermarket checkout, even if I choose the shortest-looking line, the one I’m in always seems to move the slowest. And why does jam-covered bread always land jam-side down when I accidentally drop it?
Whenever these things happen, people recall ‘Murphy’s Law’ – the idea that unfortunate events always happen to them. Murphy’s Law was first mentioned by Captain Murphy, who worked at an Air Force base in 1949. He stated, “There are always multiple ways to do something, and if one of them can cause a problem, someone will inevitably choose that method.” This was used to mean that one should always anticipate the worst and prepare countermeasures. However, nowadays, Murphy’s Law is used to mean that when misfortunes occur in succession, they seem to happen only to oneself. While it’s clear that misfortunes shouldn’t happen only to me in succession, everyone has experienced and can relate to this situation.
The minor misfortunes we often face in daily life
In fact, Murphy’s Law is primarily found in the small misfortunes of everyday life rather than in major disasters. For example, imagine getting dressed for an important presentation in the morning only to have a button fall off or spill your coffee. When these unfortunate events happen in succession, we recall Murphy’s Law and feel, ‘Of course, only I have to endure this misfortune.’ People often use Murphy’s Law as a tool to describe situations where it feels like something is deliberately tormenting them. However, there are clearly underlying scientific and psychological factors at play. So, what causes this illusion that misfortune seems to happen only to me?
The first reason is that people mistakenly perceive events happening to them as unfortunate occurrences with low probability, when in fact they are statistically and scientifically explainable, inevitable events. Professor Robert Matthews of Birmingham, UK, demonstrated that Murphy’s Law describes not simply bad luck, but statistically inevitable outcomes. He explained this phenomenon using the example of waiting in line at a supermarket checkout. If there are 10 checkout lanes, the probability that the line I’m in will move fastest is 1/10. However, the probability that another line will move faster is 9/10. Therefore, experiencing another line moving faster than mine 90% of the time is statistically inevitable.
By the same principle, when shopping at the supermarket, the chocolate bar bought to eat on the way home often ends up at the very bottom of the shopping basket, making it impossible to retrieve during the trip. This is a scientifically inevitable phenomenon: the small-volume item, the chocolate bar, moves through the physical mixing process inside the basket, slipping between larger items until it settles at the bottom. Therefore, there’s no need to think you’re unlucky for not getting to taste the chocolate bar.
Focus on Negative Events and Confirmation Bias
The second reason is a psychological factor: even when people experience both unfortunate and fortunate events equally, they are more affected by the unfortunate ones, consider them more important, and remember them longer, while smoothly progressing events are easily forgotten. Murphy’s Law arises from psychologists’ assertion that negative events become more firmly imprinted—specifically, confirmation bias, where we perceive memories of misfortune more strongly than those of good fortune. This contrasts with Sally’s Law, which describes the phenomenon where only favorable events seem to occur by chance. If life is filled with both good and bad events, the probability of something bad happening is at most 50%.
Murphy’s Law occurs because when desired situations happen as expected, the brain’s structural characteristics perceive them as unimportant information, causing them to fade quickly from memory. Conversely, unexpected information is recognized as important and remembered for a long time. This makes it feel like unfortunate events occupy a disproportionately large share. When this experience repeats, people assign greater significance to Murphy’s Law and feel that misfortune repeatedly befalls them.
There is no logic in a world where only bad things happen to me. It’s just that, for the two reasons mentioned above, things that were bound to happen anyway are mistaken for misfortune, or smooth events are simply forgotten. There’s no need to think pessimistically that only bad things will happen to me. All events occur fairly through cause and effect. Therefore, instead of fixating only on the misfortunes that seem to befall me irresistibly, I need to judge rationally and be grateful for the smooth events. The protagonist Cooper in the movie ‘Interstellar’ leaves behind these words: “Murphy’s Law doesn’t mean bad things happen. It just means that whatever can go wrong will go wrong.” This can be interpreted as meaning that when negative things happen to his daughter Murphy, it’s not that only negative things happen to me, but rather that events with a small probability will eventually occur. It implies we should think ahead and prepare countermeasures for such negative events.
